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Tuesday 6 August 2013

Buy Graphite India; target Rs 68: ICICIdirect.com


Buy Graphite India; target Rs 68: ICICIdirect.com

Buy Graphite India; target Rs 68: ICICIdirect.com


"Graphite India's (GIL's) Q1FY14 performance was marginally below our estimate on the back of muted capacity utilisation. Capacity utilisation during the quarter under review stood at 67 percent, lower than our expectation of 74 percent. Subsequently, the standalone topline during the quarter stood at Rs 403.8 crore, lower by 21.0 percent QoQ and 3.3 percent YoY and below our estimate of Rs 464.2 crore. Electrode prices improved YoY although electrode sales volumes were lower during the quarter. Standalone EBITDA margin during the quarter was at 16.3 percent, broadly in line with our estimate of 16.7 percent and notably higher than 12.1 percent reported in Q4FY13. The subsequent standalone EBITDA for Q1FY14 came in at Rs 65.8 crore (our estimate: Rs 77.7 crore) while the consequent standalone PAT was at Rs 39.3 crore (our estimate: Rs 45.0 crore). Going forward, we believe currency depreciation will aid the operating margins in absolute terms. We have modelled consolidated capacity utilisation of 67 percent and 70 percent (on expanded capacity of 98,000 tonne) in FY14E and FY15E, respectively, and arrived at a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 68."
"On the back of a muted global steel demand scenario, the demand for graphite electrodes is likely to remain subdued over the short to medium term. However, GIL is trading at a substantial discount (~38 percent) to its international peers, thus making the case for upgrading the stock from HOLD to BUY. Going forward, we have modelled capacity utilisation of 67 percent and 70 percent (on a consolidated basis) in FY14E and FY15E, respectively. We have valued the company at a 30 percent discount to its global peer's average EV/EBITDA of 7.7x (resultant FY15E EV/EBITDA at 5.4x) and arrived at a target price of Rs 68 with a BUY rating on the stock," says ICICIdirect.com research report.

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Accumulate Tata Chemicals; target Rs 270: P Lilladher

Accumulate Tata Chemicals; 


target Rs 270: P Lilladher


"Tata Chemicals' Q1FY14 results turned out to be lower than expectations. Adjusted PAT came at Rs1.2bn, -24 percent YoY against an estimate of Rs1.6bn due to pressure on margins. Going forward, in the standalone business, while soda ash manufactured volumes are likely to be stable, we expect margins to remain range-bound due to increase in energy and other costs. Management also highlighted that continuous decline in global fertiliser prices will pressurize margins of manufacturers in the near term, while traders will stand to benefit out of it due to shorter turnaround time. On the North American side, margins are likely to remain under pressure due to weak export realizations and increase in costs. We have trimmed our estimates by 15 percent/13 percent to Rs28.0/32.2 to account for near-term margin pressures. Revised target price stands at Rs270 (previous Rs330). We expect stock to remain under pressure in the near-term due to challenging business environment, both in soda ash as well as fertilisers. Accumulate the stock with a target price of Rs 270," says Prabhudas Lilladher research report.

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Tata Power slumps to 4-year low, down 18% on Q1 net loss



Tata Power slumps to 4-year low, down 18% on Q1 net loss
Tata Power Company  shares crashed 18.5 percent intraday Tuesday to touch more than four-year low of Rs 68.25 after it reported loss during April-June quarter .

The private power producer posted consolidated net loss of Rs 114.7 crore in first quarter (April-June) as against profit of Rs 145.9 crore in a year ago period, dented by higher interest payment and forex loss, but its standalone performance was quite good.

Consolidated net revenue increased higher-than-expected 29 percent on yearly basis to Rs 9,292 crore during June quarter while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation & amortisation (EBITDA) margin jumped 290 bps year-on-year to 21.7 percent as against analysts' forecast of 21.2 percent.

Analysts on an average had expected the power company to report net profit at Rs 224 crore on revenues of Rs 9,004 crore for the quarter.

Meanwhile, foreign exchange loss rose by 6.5 times to Rs 292.8 crore during April-June quarter from Rs 45.2 crore in corresponding quarter of last fiscal.

Finance costs (interest payment) ballooned 64.3 percent year-on-year to Rs 902 crore in first quarter. Finance cost includes Rs 45 crore being provision for interest on amounts which have not been deposited with the statutory authorities on account of disputes which are pending.

On standalone basis, net profit increased to Rs 357 crore from Rs 312.30 crore and revenues rose to Rs 2,484.89 crore from Rs 2,190.02 crore Y-o-Y.

At 15:15 hours IST, the stock was quoting at Rs 72, down 13.98 percent amid hefty volumes on the BSE.


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Rupee at new low: Market braces for more RBI tightening!

Rupee at new low: Market braces for more RBI tightening


The pain continues for rupee as it hits fresh lows versus the dollar. The Reserve Bank (RBI) steps are not working and maybe now the market is bracing for more tightening from the RBI and perhaps for some big bang announcements from the government, says CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh.

The rupee was expected to start on a back foot today because of the dollar strength versus emerging market currencies, but nobody was quite prepared for this kind of a fall in the rupee.

The dollar was marginally stronger compared to some Asian currencies like the won or the Malaysian ringgit, but that is marginal 0.3-0.2 percent. In India, it was about over a percent stronger than the rupee. The previous all time low of the rupee 61.20/USD was an watershed mark, she added.

Once rupee breached that level, corporates who had not covered for near-term imports, just rushed in. This also perhaps clicked the stop loss boxes for foreign institutional investors (FIIs) as many of them bought forward dollars. So, the forward rate also jumped from about 7.5 percent to 8 percent, going up from Rs 4.60-4.70 paise all the way to nearly Rs 4.85 paise for a one-year forward and that would make it about 8 percent.

Interbanks also covered for their clients. In the forward market, at about 61.78-61.80/USD levels some bit of selling of dollars was seen - either people were unwinding positions on their own or maybe the RBI showed its hand there was a minor amount of PSU banks offering dollars.

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Friday 2 August 2013

Idea Cellular may test Rs 180: Jagannadham Thununguntla


  


Idea Cellular may test Rs 180: Jagannadham Thununguntla






Idea Cellular may test Rs 180: Jagannadham Thununguntla



Jagannadham Thununguntla, Strategist & Head of Research of SMC Global Securities told CNBC-TV18, " Idea Cellular  is one of the very few stocks probably left in the market now where people can confidently think about holding and probably even creating a long even at this level. Maybe I think Rs 180 level is definitely coming in it."


"The stock is consistently doing well in terms of operation performance. On top of that the share placement probably can create additional trigger to the stock. I think Idea can go up," he said.

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Exit Reliance Communications: Jagannadham Thununguntla

Exit Reliance Communications: Jagannadham Thununguntla




Jagannadham Thununguntla, Strategist & Head of Research of SMC Global Securities told CNBC-TV18, "I think Reliance Communications  (RComm) is slightly different ballgame. It is a very volatile in nature. So, one should have that kind of a risk appetite to really absorb all the newsflow and on top of that the company ofcourse has debt and the company has been eagerly trying for in many formats be it in terms of demerger or be it in terms of asset sale to reduce their debt. But every time even though there maybe a short-term bounces, the consistency is a major question mark."

                                                  Exit Reliance Communications: Jagannadham Thununguntla


"I feel that RComm should be preferred to only those investors who have that kind of risk appetite. Otherwise, I think it makes sense to exit from Reliance Communications and probably look at Idea Cellular ," he said.

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SBI may correct to Rs 1550: SP Tulsian...

SBI may correct to Rs 1550: SP Tulsian



                                   SBI may correct to Rs 1550: SP Tulsian

SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com told CNBC-TV18, "I don't know how State bank of India (SBI) will really be able to present any kind of comfort on the asset quality. I won't be surprised to see the share correcting to level of about Rs 1550 or so."

The share touched its 52-week high Rs 2,550 and 52-week low Rs 1,665.00 on 10 January, 2013 and 01 August, 2013, respectively. Currently, it is trading 34.06 percent below its 52-week high and 0.98 percent above its 52-week low. Market capitalisation stands at Rs 115,010.05 crore.


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See support around Rs 110-120 in Financial Tech: Mohindar

See support around Rs 110-120 in Financial Tech: Mohindar




Rahul Mohindar of viratechindia.com told CNBC-TV18, "In Financial Technologies  there is good support around Rs 110-120 levels. We have seen some bouncing around from that levels. If one has to be little aggressive, I think one might see a good 30-40 percent in terms of sudden upside."


                                                   See support around Rs 110-120 in Financial Tech: Mohindar

He further added, "The way the volatility has crept in on the stock very aggressive call, but might be just worth doing a little small bit on it. The fall is going to get arrested."

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Wednesday 24 July 2013

If Nifty stays above 6000, which 8 stocks will be in focus???



If Nifty stays above 6000, which 8 stocks will be in focus???


The NSE benchmark 50-share Nifty on Friday reclaimed the 6000-mark encouraged by better-than-expected trade data and Infosys April-June quarter earnings.

The index rose 73.90 points or 1.25 percent to finish at 6009, continuing its uptrend for the second consecutive session. The BSE Sensex advanced 282.41 points or 1.44 percent to end at 19958.47 after hitting an intraday high of 19991.94.

On the macro front, industrial production delivers a rude shock as it contracts 1.6 percent in May and retail inflation for June rises to 9.87 percent. Meanwhile, the June wholesale price index (WPI) is expected today.

Oil marketing companies (OMCs) will be in focus today as weak rupee forces the OMCs to hike petrol prices again by Rs 1.55 per litre.


Stock in news

Meeting between Bajaj Auto management, labour union and Commissioner ends inconclusive. The company says that Labour minister will summon the management this week

Sources indicate that EIL has filed prospectus to sell 10 percent stake via follow on public offer (FPO). The government aims to raise Rs 500 crore via the FPO. 

The Tamil Nadu Chief Minister appoints a team to discuss modalities of divestment in Neyveli Lignite . Further discussion on NLC divestment will be held today.

According to reports Kuwait Airways enters fray to buy stake in Spicejet. It is likely to pick stake short of the 25 percent mark. The deal value is pegged around Rs 1000 crore.

Sadbhav Engineering gets orders worth Rs 184 crore from Gujarat government.

Sources say YES Bank's Rana Kapoor writes to RBI seeking declassification of Madhu Kapoor as non-promoter. Rana Kapoor says Madhu Kapoor does not hold management/board position Rana Kapoor's request part of the Dilution Plan submitted to RBI in 2012.

Earnings

Exide's April-June quarter earnings will be announced today. A CNBC-TV18 poll sees profit rising 5 percent to Rs 160 crore from Rs 152 crore. 
 
Revenue may rise over 7 percent as the company will benefit from demand uptick in 4-wheeler replacement battery segment and that will offset slowdown in OEM batteries and industrial battery segment. Margins are likely to be stable since despite the lead prices rising by 7 percent YoY in rupee terms in first quarter, this will be offset by price hikes taken in Q4 to the tune of 5-6 percent, which are expected to aid margins in Q1 due to lag effect.

Oberoi Realty too will report numbers today. It expects a drop in sales, firstly on account of a general slowdown coupled with a delay in receiving the nod for Esquire and secondly on account of exhaustion of inventory at Splendour.

Global cues

In Asia, China has reported second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) at 7.5 percent (Y-o-Y) and up 1.8 percent Q-o-Q. This is inline with what was being estimated.

Asian markets are mixed ahead of China's second quarter GDP as well as industrial production data expected today. Japanese markets are shut for trade.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to appear for the semi-annual congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday.

The euro is holding above 1.30 to the dollar. The dollar index is around 83 levels. In commodities, Brent Crude is trading close to USD 109 after touching a low of USD 107.28 per barrel. Nymex too saw a one dollar gain but it's still below the 16-month high.

From precious metals space, gold is trading at USD 1280 an ounce.


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Hold Hexaware Technologies, says Sanjeev Agarwal



Hold Hexaware Technologies, says Sanjeev Agarwal
Sanjeev Agarwal, CEO of Dynamix Research & Capital Management told CNBC-TV18, "Hexaware Technologies  had given a breakout at Rs 94 and this has been one of the very strong shares. I have been advocating most of the shares that belongs to IT pack should do very well. Overall this move is not going to end. We have a target of around 67 by next September as per the technical structure of the rupee/dollar chart and whatever RBI is going to do may succeed in a short-term in holding dollars for little lower price but overall I feel the dollar has to go up to 65-67 by next year."


"Seeing that I feel these IT stocks should do very well particularly those stocks where the hedging has not been done completely so as to get the benefit of complete rise on that. Overall, I feel these stocks will get much better order also because they will be much cheaper comparatively to other players like local players in US or anywhere in the world because of the rupee's very fast depreciation," he said.


"I feel in the coming year, we are going to get the benefit of the rupee depreciation in all these stocks. So definitely, one should hold and add more towards Rs 95-100 if at all it comes back to that level."


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Global markets near 5-yr high on Abe win, though earnings weigh

Global markets near 5-yr high on Abe 

win, though earnings weigh


NEW YORK: World stock prices rose near five-year highs on Monday on growing investor optimism after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe strengthened his power base, adding weight to his plans to jumpstart the world's third-biggest economy.

Investors' mood was also helped by a pledge from G20 nations on Saturday to put growth before austerity to revive the global economy, which the bloc said was "too weak."

The yen rebounded after an initial dip in Tokyo, but many traders viewed the bounce as temporary in view of Abe's upper house election win on Sunday.

Riskier assets, including peripheral euro zone bonds, got a boost after Portugal's president moved to keep the country's coalition government intact, patching over recent troubles.

However, disappointing earnings from McDonald's mitigated the upbeat mood as the US fast-food giant posted weaker-than-expected results.

"McDonald's (earnings) headlines were a little weak but I think we are still in the strong start of the earnings season," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, Ohio.

News of a surprise drop in US existing home sales also tempered the initial buying ofequities and other risky assets.

"The risk is the macro backdrop doesn't come through quite as strong as some of the companies are looking at, and that could be a negative factor for them," said Investececonomist Victoria Clarke in London.

MSCI's world index, which tracks stocks in 45 countries, gained 0.44 per cent to 375.51, helped by a 0.47 per cent rise in Tokyo's Nikkei index. It was about 7 points below a five-year high set in late May.

In midday trading, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 12.56 points, or 0.08 per cent, at 15,556.30. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 3.27 points, or 0.19 per cent, at 1,695.36. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 11.69 points, or 0.33 per cent, at 3,599.31. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow hit all-time highs last week.

In Europe, upbeat results from Dutch electronics maker Philips and Swiss Banks UBS and Julius Baer boosted European share prices, but some profit-taking emerged, reducing their early gains.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 00 index provisionally closed 0.14 per cent higher at 1,210.70, adding to its month-to-date gain of 5.5 per cent.

"We might consolidate here a bit after the rally but we are not entering a correction or anything. The market is shaking off the bad news from Google and Microsoft already," and that shows the upward momentum is strong, Schaeffer's Detrick said, referring to sub-par results from the two technology companies last week.

The slight pause in the summer stock rally provided a boost for low-risk government debt in the wake of remarks from US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that signaled the central bank will leave short-term rates near zero for a long time.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury note yield dipped to 2.473 per cent, its lowest level in over two weeks. German Bund futures were little changed at 144.24.

CHOPPY YEN The yen bounced back after an initial dip in Tokyo trading on some dollar selling by Japanese investors, which in turn triggered stop-loss selling in thin summer conditions.

"Japanese portfolio outflows is what will drive the yen lower in coming months... Confidence from this victory can be constructive but these outflows will be a slow-moving process," said Ned Rumpeltin, head of G-10 FX strategy at Standard Chartered Bank in London.

The dollar was down 1 per cent on the day at 99.61 yen , a turnaround from an Asian session high of 100.70. The euro was 0.4 per cent lower at 131.42 yen, well off an early high of 132.29.

The dollar index was 0.5 per cent lower, slipping further away from a 3-year high set earlier this month.

Commodities were mostly firmer thanks to the softer dollar. Spot gold rose to its highest level in a month and last traded up 2.8 per cent at $1,332.36 an ounce, while copper gained 1.6 per cent to $7,023.75 a tonne.

Oil prices turned lower, erasing early gains. Brent crude in London fell 23 cents to $107.84 a barrel, while US crude was down $1.11 at $106.94 after hitting a near 16-month peak of $109.32 earlier.

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World stocks near 5-year high on Japan elections; yen jumps...

World stocks near 5-year high on Japan elections; yen jumps

                               Investors' mood was also helped by a pledge from the Group of 20 to put growth before austerity, seeking to revive a global economy.
NEW YORK: World stock prices rose to near five-year highs on Monday on growing investor optimism after Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe strengthened his power base, adding weight to his plans to jumpstart the world's third-biggest economy.

Investors' mood was also helped by a pledge from the Group of 20 on Saturday to put growth before austerity, seeking to revive a global economy that the bloc described as "too weak."

The yen rebounded after an initial dip in Tokyo, but many traders viewed the bounce as temporary in view of Abe's upper house election win on Sunday.

Riskier assets, including peripheral euro zone bonds, got a boost after Portugal's president moved to keep the country's coalition government intact, patching over recent troubles.

However, disappointing earnings from McDonald's mitigated the upbeat mood for equitiesas the US fast-food giant posted weaker-than-expected results.

"McDonald's (earnings) headlines were a little weak, but I think we are still in the strong start of the earnings season," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Data showing a surprise drop in US existing-home sales in June also tempered the initial buying of equities and other risky assets.

"The risk is the macro backdrop doesn't come through quite as strong as some of the companies are looking at, and that could be a negative factor for them," said Investec economist Victoria Clarke in London.

MSCI's world index, which tracks stocks in 45 countries, gained 0.43 per cent to 375.47, helped by a 0.47 per cent rise in Tokyo's Nikkei index. It was about 7 points below a five-year high set in late May.

In late afternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 7.72 points, or 0.05 per cent, at 15,551.46. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 3.46 points, or 0.20 per cent, at 1,695.55. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 11.89 points, or 0.33 per cent, at 3,599.51.

Both the S&P 500 and the Dow hit all-time highs last week following a moderate pullback of fears that the Federal Reserve might reduce its bond-purchase stimulus later this year if the economy improves further.

In Europe, upbeat results from Dutch electronics maker Philips and Swiss banks UBS and Julius Baer boosted European share prices, but early gains were pared as profit-taking emerged.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 00 index ended 0.14 per cent higher at 1,210.70, adding to its month-to-date gain of 5.5 per cent.

"We might consolidate here a bit after the rally but we are not entering a correction or anything. The market is shaking off the bad news from Google and Microsoft already," and that shows the upward momentum is strong, Schaeffer's Detrick said, referring to sub-par results from the two technology companies last week.

The slight pause in the summer stock rally provided further support for low-risk government debt in the wake of remarks from US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that signaled the central bank will leave short-term rates near zero for a long time even if it stops purchasing bonds.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury note yield earlier touched 2.465 per cent, its lowest level in over two weeks, before turning back to 2.493 per cent, which was unchanged from late on Friday.

German Bund futures were little changed at 144.19.

Choppy yen

The yen bounced back after an initial dip in Tokyo trading on some dollar selling by Japanese investors, which in turn triggered stop-loss selling in thin summer conditions.

"Japanese portfolio outflows is what will drive the yen lower in coming months. ... Confidence from this victory can be constructive but these outflows will be a slow-moving process," said Ned Rumpeltin, head of G-10 FX strategy at Standard Chartered Bank in London.

The dollar was down 1 per cent on the day at 99.62 yen , a turnaround from an Asian session high of 100.71. The euro was 0.45 per cent lower at 131.35 yen, well off an early high of 132.43.


The dollar index was 0.45 per cent lower at 82.235, slipping further away from a three-year high set earlier this month.

Commodities were mostly firmer thanks to the softer dollar. Spot gold recorded its biggest-single day gain in more than a year to its highest level in a month. It last traded up almost 3 per cent at $1,333.49 an ounce.

Copper gained 1.6 per cent to $7,023.75 a tonne. Oil prices were mostly lower, erasing early gains. Brent crude in London eked out an 8 cent, or 0.07 per cent, gain at $108.15 a barrel, but US crude settled down $1.14, or 1.06 per cent, at $106.91 after hitting a near 16-month peak of $109.32 on Friday.


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